North Korean talks enter fourth day

Beijing, China — North Korea is refusing to renege on its demand that financial sanctions against it be lifted, before it dismantles its nuclear program.

While the negotiations are continuing, they risk coming to a standstill if either side does not change its position. Following North Korea’s October 9 nuclear test, the US wants the Koreans to dismantle their nuclear program. The Koreans, in turn, want financial sanctions, imposed last year, to be removed.

Undoubtedly, progress is being made, as the talks have entered a fourth day of negotiations and have been extended until Friday. Likely, the US and North Korea are reluctant to reveal what concessions they are willing to make, to maintain their strong bargaining advantage. The US has effectively shown that sanctions do sometimes work — North Korea would not be stubborn about the financial sanctions, if they were not a problem for the regime. North Korea, on the other hand, has shown that hard power still makes others listen. Prior to the nuclear test in October, no one was rushing to the negotiating table; now North Korea is an “urgent problem,” according to US negotiator Christopher Hill.

The issue at hand will not be resolved by Friday (or the weekend), when the current round of talks is set to conclude, but progress may indeed be made, with possible symbolic gestures from both the US and North Korea.

The talks on North Korea’s program recommenced on Monday, following their interruption over a year ago, when financial sanctions were imposed against North Korea.

New Iraq strategy: more troops or not?

New Secretary of State Robert Gates has met with US commanders in Iraq and found them cautious of a proposal to infuse Iraq with more troops. The commanders don’t want a boost in troop levels without a clear mandate for those troops. The commanders clearly understand that another 20 000 troops will not rectify the situation without a clear strategy.

President Bush has echoed the sentiment, saying he is open to a troops increase with a clear mission.

It’s yet another confirmation that the US is looking to exit from Iraq in the next 10-14 months. The idea of increasing US troops to train Iraqi forces is gaining more and more popularity, with US troops incapable of stabilizing the civil uprisings in the US-supported democracy.

A new strategy in Iraq will be announced by President Bush in January; it remains to be seen whether the US President will go along with suggestions from the Iraq Study Group, which he commissioned. A temporary troops increase can be expected, with the longer-term goal of exiting Iraq. The most salient question is whether the US will deal with Iran or Syria directly.

With the US asking that a resolution on Iran be passed at the UN Security Council before the weekend, Iran may not be approached directly. However, the US may opt to talk to Syria, leaving it to Syria to directly engage with Iran.

Iran may also chose to make its own move, before the US announces its strategy: President Ahmadinejad has already met with his Iraqi counterpart, discussing how Iran could help stabilize the new democracy. With recent municipal elections leaning toward moderates like Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad needs to adjust his policies, if he wishes to serve a second term. One way would be to cooperate with Iraq and remain open to talks with US.