Israeli-Palestinian Peace in Jeopardy

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made comments today about talks with Hamas hitting “a dead end.” This puts the prospects for peace with Israel in serious jeopardy, as Hamas was instrumental in securing the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire last week. Without Hamas, Abbas has no true influence in the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian President is either trying to pressure Hamas on something — and Hamas doesn’t believe him, they think he’s bluffing — or he is making the statement for US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (who is meeting with him and Israeli PM Olmert). It is well known that despite its democratic election in January, the US and other countries do not welcome a political role for Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. For this reason financial aid from the West has been blocked since the election.

It is conceivable that Abbas’ statements are intended for Rice; in the hopes of securing aid, the Palestinian President may be signaling that he is not a pushover and will challenge Hamas when needed. But those kinds of comments can potentially jeopardize whatever momentum the peace process has right now, as it is in the interests of Abbas to have Hamas on his side. Otherwise, the threat to security will not come from without, but from within. And Palestine certainly doesn’t need a civil war.

No Progress in North Korean Talks

North Korea has been in pre-negotiation talks this week with the US and China in Beijing. The US is urging North Korea to “get out of the nuclear business” while the Korean side says it is not ready to fully abandon its nuclear program. In other words, there’s been no progress thusfar, though the Korean side has promised to study ideas put forth by the US and host China.

It makes no sense for North Korea to simply give up its nuclear program as it is currently the biggest asset the regime has. It is North Korea’s nuclear test which got the country back to the negotiating table with a negotiating advantage. With the regime currently at a weak point, it will not give up its bargaining chip easily: the US must be willing to first lift financial sanctions imposed on North Korea last year. A significant aid package will also have to be involved.

Maliki Snubs Bush?

President Bush’s meeting with Iraqi PM al-Maliki has been postponed till Thursday. The reason given is that Maliki had already met King Abdullah prior to Bush’s arrival in Jordan’s capital and it wasn’t necessary for the three parties to meet tonight.

The White House has denied the postponing being a snub by the Iraqi PM. However, it is difficult to see it as anything other than that; if Maliki is to work with the US in bringing stability to Iraq, he needs to spend as much time with Bush as possible. Today’s event dictated otherwise. This is possibly a signal for Iran, indicating that Iraq is ready to cooperate with its neighbor. After all, Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei offered Iranian help yesterday when he met with Iraq’s President Talabani, while criticizing US presence in the country.

Hussein Trial, a failure

After the recent severe criticism of Saddam Hussein’s trial by Human Rights Watch, experts at the United Nations have come to similar conclusions. A UN group studying arbitrary detention has deemed the trial flawed and has called Hussein’s detention illegal.

The group released its statement yesterday because it believes Hussein’s death penalty must be readdressed due to procedural inconsistencies throughout the trial.

This is not welcome news to the new Iraqi government, which oversaw the Saddam Hussein’s trial. The first significant judicial case executed under this government has now been criticized by two major organizations, one of which is an NGO, the other an IO; with time, more similar reports may be published. This is part of the reason that Iraqi PM Maliki has already stated that Hussein may be hanged by the end of 2006. The Iraqi government knows the trial was illegitimate and it wants to move on.

This is also not welcome news for the US, as it has ostensibly been supporting an Iraqi government which does not conform to standards of democratic behavior. If the US went into Iraq to bring democracy to the region, then the mission has certainly not been accomplished.

What Will Maliki Do? President Bush Meets Iraqi PM

US President George Bush is set to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Amman. And President Bush has some questions.

“My questions to him will be: What do you need to do to succeed? What is your strategy in dealing with the sectarian violence,” said Bush.

Ultimately, the US President is ridding himself of any responsibility of having to deal with the sectarian violence and is making it look like the issue is with the Iraqi government. It is, but the occurrence of the sectarian violence is not the result of the Iraqi government’s policies. The sectarian violence is something that developed with the American occupation of Iraq. If we look back to the initial occupation of the country, sectarian friction in the country was at its lowest. However, as the US occupation of Iraq has elapsed, sectarian violence has been on the rise.

It is up to Iraq’s government to solve the state of civil war it is in right now, but if the US had any good intentions when it invaded the country, then it is also up to the US to be involved. Especially considering the fact that President Bush has spoken out against any troops withdrawals.

Meanwhile, Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei has told Iraqi President Talabani that US forces must leave Iraq for a possible peace in the country. Khamenei offered the Iraqi President assistance in stabilizing the country.

Secure Freedom

A screening of Alexandre Trudeau’s documentary film Secure Freedom was held in Montreal yesterday. The film, which aired earlier this fall on CTV, reveals the prejudicial system of Security Certificates in Canada. The certificates allow for the detention of suspects without granting them — or the public — access to the evidence against them.

The following is a brief report about the screening, including Alexandre Trudeau’s take on Security Certificates.

Iraq: Not a Civil War?

While NBC along with other media outlets have decided that “civil war” is no longer an inappropriate term to use when describing Iraq, the US has continued to use guarded language.

“We‘re clearly in a new phase characterized by an increase in sectarian violence that requires us to adapt to that new phase,” National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley was quoted as saying by AP.

Hadley refused the notion of Iraq being in a civil war and rejected the suggestion that President Bush would address the issue of troops withdrawal when he meets with Iraq’s Prime Minister this week.

Yet Hadley is contradicting himself. Sectarian violence at levels its been at this week is a civil war. The “new phase” that he mentions is the civil war. Needing “to adapt” is adapting to the reality of a civil war. But the White House cannot directly say that and must use guarded language. If the White House declares Iraq in a state of civil war, it will be seen as an American (and British) failure.

With a declaration of a civil war, the United States will not be capable of declaring victory and will be blamed for not upholding the peace. Moreover, the declaration of a civil war will also give credibility to the need of having Iran involved in solving Iraq’s problems. The US, however, wants to deal with Iran on US terms, something that is becoming less and less likely. Civil war also makes the eventual exit from Iraq look bad, since the US will be seen as responsible for having created the conditions for the civil war.

So the White House confines itself to a “new phase.”

The above image is taken from Barney’s official website. It is not being used for profit and is thus claimed as Fair Use under US copyright law.

Jaggi Singh Out on Bail

Montreal QC — A hearing was held at Montreal’s municipal court today in the case of Jaggi Singh’s arrest on Friday, November 24. Singh was arrested by an RCMP officer at Montreal General Hospital, where an announcement and press conference by Canadian PM Stephen Harper was to be held.

The arrest was the result of no act of provocation by the well-known Montreal activist. At the press conference, the RCMP advised security of Jaggi Singh’s presence, and security, in turn, asked that Singh leave the premises. The activist refused, stating that he had a right to be at the meeting. The RCMP intervened and arrested Singh.

At today’s bail hearing, Crown Prosecutor Francis Paradis argued for the preventative detention of Singh until his trial date, meaning that Singh could have been held in confinement for another six months. The argument was that Singh would be a threat to public safety, a claim which was unequivocally denied by the defense’s witnesses. The Crown had no witnesses and only referring to the RCMP report filed upon the arrest.

The judge disagreed with the Crown and released Singh on a $2000 bail, money which was collected by his supporters who numbered close to one hundred at the hearing. In fact, there were so many supporters present, that the hearing had to be moved to a new room to accommodate the audience.

In addition to bail, a condition was also attached to the release; Singh is not allowed to partake in any demonstration which is illegal or non-peaceful.

“I think it was abusive that a condition was imposed upon Jaggi,” said Louise-Caroline Bergeron of Montreal group Block the Empire. “While you’re in a demonstration and you don’t have birds-eye view, you can’t know what’s going on five hundred people behind you.”

Tonight, Jaggi Singh will be freed from the Rivière-des-Prairies detention centre, where he has been held since Friday’s arrest. Due to the overcrowding of the facility, he has had to spend the weekend sleeping on benches. Access to a shower was first provided only on Sunday.

Below is the full statement by Louise-Caroline Bergeron of Block the Empire. Jared Will, Mr Singh’s legal adviser, had no comments. Crown Prosecutor Francis Paradis was not available after the hearing.

To learn more about the event where Jaggi Singh was arrested, please refer to “Harper Announces Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Speaks of Quebec “Nation”.

Beit Hanoun, an Israeli Success

Ceasefire by Casualties

If the ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants holds, then it will be due to the success of Israeli Foreign Policy in the last few months.

The fervent attacks by Israeli Defense Forces on militant bases in Gaza and the civilian casualties that they caused have proven an effective incentive for the establishment of a truce. After Palestinian women were shot at, after 13 members of the same family were killed in the notorious Beit Hanoun incident, and after Israel failed to respond to international criticism, a truce was announced Saturday night by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

With the US, its closest ally, yielding veto power in the United Nations Security Council, the Israeli government is capable of questionable actions. In fact, the Beit Hanoun shelling drew criticism from the UN Security Council which considered a resolution against Israel. Without surprise, the US vetoed that resolution. The fact that the incident left 19 civilian casualties dead (as well as numbers of wounded), was not enough to merit criticism from the US. Instead, Ambassador John Bolton spoke of an inherent anti-Israeli bias in the United Nations.

The announcement Saturday, and the enforcement of the ceasefire on Sunday, is the result of relentless Israeli efforts to force Palestinian militants to give up their fight. They haven’t. But they have obviously felt it was in the best interest of fellow Gaza citizens that they stop their ineffectual campaign of bombing Israel with Qassam rockets. After all, the Qassam rockets lack precision and rarely hit their targets. They also leave few civilian casualties, because they usually hit non-populated areas. It simply became an unsustainable policy, with countless civilian casualties in the Palestinian Areas and the continuing occupation by Israeli Forces.

While the civilian casualties were never intended by Israel — Beit Hanoun was caused by a “technical failure,” and Israel regularly phones ten minutes before a bombing to wan civilians — they have been in Israel’s favor. The shooting at civilian women who were shielding militants at a mosque, played into the hands of Israel; it made clear that Israel would not be deterred from targeting militants, even if it meant civilian casualties. That incident occurred a few days before Beit Hanoun, which confirmed the reality of Israel’s policy, when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed regret over the incident stopping short of apologizing.

Israeli Restraint

Whenever he faced criticism over Israel’s policy this fall, Olmert has responded with the argument that Israel cannot stand silent while Palestinian militants are bombing Israel. On Sunday, however, Israel did not respond to the several rockets which were launched into Israel upon the commencement of the truce. Olmert invoked Israel’s ability to show restraint, because Israel’s mission was already accomplished. There had been enough civilian casualties to convince Fatah and Hamas to work together in reigning in militant groups.

In fact, Fatah and Hamas began talks immediately after Beit Hanoun to try and come to a unitary government.

This success of Israeli foreign policy comes at a needed time. After the failure of the Lebanon campaign this summer — Hezbollah was armed too well and actually fought back — Israel needed something to reaffirm its influence.

It got that with the Palestinian Occupied territories, by successfully forcing a ceasefire. But it couldn’t do it without unquestionable US support. And innocent Palestinian deaths.

Solving Iraq and Iranian Influence

Iraqi President Talabani has not been able to leave Iraq to meet with his Iranian counterpart, Ahmadinejad, for a crucial meeting which could set the framework for Iraq’s future. However, Ahmadinejad is not stopping his active foreign policy of involving Iran in solving Iraq’s problems; this time, the Iranian President has offered to help the US with its woes in Iraq.

The president said Iran is ready to help if the US stops “bullying” and “invading” in the region.

In the meantime, a spokesman for the foreign ministry denied the idea that Iran plans a summit between Iran, Syria and Iraq, without going into any details. The statement could be meant as an incentive for the US to accept Iran’s offer: if Tehran actually holds a three-way summit, it will be a major failure of US foreign policy in Iraq.

The US must seriously consider the offer: all of its efforts to restore stability to Iraq have backfired. For example, with security bolstered in Baghdad this week the country plunged into one of the deadliest weeks in the US-led occupation, with hundreds dead on a single day.