More Talk of Iraq Exit

The Guardian reports that both US and US officials are now looking at exit strategies for Iraq.

This is not surprising — in an entry yesterday, this is exactly what I suggested could happen. What may have fast-tracked the examination of these exit strategies is today’s Amara incidents.

The US will most likely not talk about these exist strategies directly until the mid-term elections pass. However, we can expect similar statements as were heard in President Bush’s interview with ABC news on Wednesday.

Putin doesn’t commit

As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not committed his country legally binding agreement.

While Russia has been a fairly open market, its energy sector has been centralized with Putin’s presidency. The country has reaped enormous economic rewards, has had its economy grow and has been able to pay off its debts at faster paces than anyone could have predicted. President Putin wants to stick to the winning formula. With a quarter of energy exports in Europe being Russian, it will be hard to persuade the president to change course. It simply is in the country’s interests to maintain the current order.

Or perhaps Putin is preparing for his post-Presidential career; there has been speculation that Putin may head Gazprom upon the completion of his term.

Energy in Europe: Russia and the EU

Russian President Putin is meeting with EU leaders today to discuss energy provision to Europe.

Russia’s economic growth in recent years has been accomplished largely through its exports of gas and oil. With a direct pipeline to Germany on its way, it doesn’t seem likely to slow down; this is why European leaders are worried, because while Russia doesn’t hold the monopoly, it can certainly influence things quite a lot. The perfect example is what occurred when Russia cut the gas supply to the Ukraine this winter: repercussion were felt throughout Europe.

The EU leaders want access to the Russian energy market (for European companies), but they are unlikely to get much from Putin. His presidency has been focused on centralizing energy resources to ensure the state income that the country has brought in under his presidency. One of the accomplishments of his presidency was returning Gazprom to state control, with the government owning more than half of the prosperous company.

Sadr’s Militia seizes the city of Amara

The Guardian reports that Amara had been temporarily seized by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s army. British troops were on standby.

The siege goes to show how little control the Iraqi government has over the country, outside of Baghdad. And Baghdad itself has not been the safest place recently, with the US army even admitting a failure to provide security.

Canada’s Clean Air Act Gets Approval from Albreta

The proposed clean air act, which has been widely criticized by the opposition and environmental groups for its lack of immediate targets has received the support of the Albertan energy sector.

Once again, the Conservatives show their incompetence to create a National policy on the environment and are appealing to corporate interests in the West. It is no secret that the gains made by the Conservatives in the East (particularly Québec) were due to a protest vote meant to punish the Liberal Party for the sponsorship scandal. The Harper Government’s environmental policy, however, will not find many sympathizers in the East for the next federal election — Québec is an environmentally conscious province and has its poster-company Hydro Québec running a “clean” operation.

The advantage of the Clean Air Act is that it sets precise goals for lowering emissions rates and gives the industry time. However, Kyoto had very specific goals too, and if it was adhered to and not challenged over and over (the Liberals are also guilty of uncertainty) then nothing would be so unclear. The only reason that industry (in Alberta) is much more content with the Harper Government’s proposal is that it again gives them more time to not do anything or to act slower than is required.

Pollution levels are growing, every summer there is more and more smog warnings, and allergy sufferers are far and wide. Action must be taken now. But money dictates otherwise. Stock up on your Claritin.

For more on the Kyoto Protocol, visit CBC’s “Kyoto and Beyond” special profile.

Kim Jong-Il: No More Tests

It’s now more and more evident (and no longer speculation), that the October 9th nuclear test was a way to begin talks and get a leg up for the upcoming talks.

South Korean media have reported that Kim Jong-Il has made clear to Chinese envoy Tang Jiaxuan that no more tests will be carried out.

Interesting to see if the reported “activity” at a suspected N Korean site will continue. (Or if those reports were fabricated?)

Also interesting to see if any announcements will be made after Condoleezza Rice meets with Russian officials.

US political victory

Chinese banks have reportedly stopped financial transfers to North Korea in an effort to fulfill the obligations of Resolution 1718.

This is a signal accomplishment of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who has been in talks with Chinese officials yesterday. It will be interesting to see in the next few weeks if any incentives were offered to China for this. (I.e. if any surprise announcements will be made.)

This is a fair political victory for the US, because China is ultimately the closest ally that North Korea has and is also its hub to the world economy.

What next? Negotiations? Or a second test for North Korea to ameliorate its bargaining position? Unless serious negotiations get under way after Condoleezza Rice visits Russia today, we can expect a second test to occur.